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During a lavish speakeasy-style event hosted at Raffles hotel on Whitehall recently, prominent figures of what is left within Tory circles celebrated the Spectator’s parliamentarian of the year awards.

Given the publication's stance still just about backing the Tories, despite the party facing an existential crisis from Reform UK, it was unsurprising that speculation swirled at the champagne-fuelled event focused on the security of the leader's position was at risk.

Leadership Rivalries Emerge at Awards

One senior figure, who unsuccessfully ran, made pointed remarks during his speech targeting the obvious aspirations of his shadow cabinet colleague, a key rival – who is Badenoch’s biggest threat.

“Am I after her job? Am I going to stick the knife between her shoulder blades and steal the crown? No, of course I’m not,” the experienced politician informed the amused crowd as he opened the awards ceremony.

The runner-up from last year, has recently shifted sharply rightward to take on Nigel Farage, did at least manage to chuckle. His strategic moves have been anything but subtle.

Countdown to Challenge Begins

Months ago, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers initiated a public timer online of the days left until Conservative rules allow leadership bids. That clock reaches zero this weekend.

From then on, opponents within the party can formally request a leadership election. Revised guidelines established recently raising the required support, now demanding thirty percent from parliamentary colleagues must endorse, up from 15%, establishing a tougher standard for those trying to oust her.

Potential Challengers and Backing

But could any putative rivals – primarily Jenrick – persuade the 36 MPs needed to initiate proceedings? Party sources reference previous nomination totals in the leadership contest: 28 in the first round. “That’s your starting point,” they said.

There is no shortage of Conservative legislators ready to express dissatisfaction with the leader: her style, her decision-making, her ability to cut through. However, generally, they are hesitant about committing yet another act of political regicide so soon.

Breathing Space and Poll Concerns

Several party members also believe her performance at the autumn party conference, announcing a policy to remove property tax on primary homes, secured her temporary relief.

“We might not be happy with the current leadership we will act cautiously about getting rid of her. The public already think we engage in internal conflicts. We should avoid providing further confirmation,” one MP said.

This doesn't mean planning has ceased. “Kemi has until May. Upcoming council polls are going to be cataclysmic for us. No one will desire to assume leadership preemptively and have to own the result. However, post-elections, we will need somebody capable of guiding in a new direction,” a frontbench source said.

Survey Data and Public Opinion

Recent surveys indicate Badenoch has made little progress among voters over the last year with declining in terms of her personal ratings. At -22 points, she is less popular compared to her rival and another colleague, according to Ipsos Mori.

Data from YouGov further reveals that Badenoch has convinced just one in eight voters she is a prime minister in waiting. However, the picture is better with party supporters, over half stating she has done a good job as party leader, and only 30% opposing her continuation the party into the next general election.

Upcoming Scenarios and Party Strategies

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, there appears to be a consensus among the MPs that a change is inevitable to lead the party into the next election.

The main division centers on timing to replace her in May and have a chance at stopping Reform’s momentum – or delay until nearer the election date when Farage might have imploded, and voters could be more willing to listen to the Tories again.

It is no secret that Jenrick thinks he is the right candidate. However, associates claim he has no plans to move now, and agrees with those advocating patience until spring.

Other Contenders and Strategies

There is also a theory that the party’s potential saviour may end up being somebody less prominent figures (one junior minister is sometimes suggested) or among newer MPs without strong associations to previous governments.

Another former candidate, is considered a consensus builder, and has been keeping his powder dry. His allies say he thinks there is no alternative but to carry on with Badenoch, since a new leader immediately would inherit an even more difficult situation.

However, if a contest were to be triggered, there would undoubtedly be those encourage his candidacy, and he may be persuadable to give it another shot. A small group of centrist MPs are already preparing a rearguard action to prevent Jenrick from being crowned from winning.

Rightward Shift and Electoral Considerations

An influential insider cautioned that momentum favors right-wingers both inside and outside the party, citing figures such as Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “It is a chance for James as he has the stature and membership connections, while others oppose Jenrick completely.”

“Many are considering potential agreements with the rival party at some stage. During the votes on social issues generated significant ‘we need to kick the people who voted for those out the party’ and Reform’s private messaging is ‘you’ve got some Lib Dems sympathizers must go. That tips things in Robert’s favour a bit.”

However, another added: “The outcome remains a foregone conclusion. We could have a strong competition involving multiple candidates – other prominent figures. The assumption that conservatives always wins the membership is not necessarily the case.”